Subject: Re: Coincidences in card dealing
Date: Mon, 12 Jan 1998 19:54:30 -0500
From: Alex Bogomolny

Dear Roger & family:

If you are into this kind of problems, I may heartily recommend a small book by F.Mosteller "Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability With Solutions." Especially relevant to your question are problems #45 and #46.

  1. Math expectation of the number of coincidences is 1
  2. Finds the probability of exactly r coincidences
Probability that there was no coincidences at all is approximately 1/e, or 0.368... Which means that the answer to your question is about 63%.

All the best,
Alexander Bogomolny

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