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Subject: "Probability"     Previous Topic | Next Topic
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Conferences The CTK Exchange College math Topic #627
Reading Topic #627
melefthe
Member since Feb-8-07
May-17-07, 03:49 PM (EST)
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"Probability"
 
   Astronomers reckon that, say, 1.000 stars in the visible universe are capable of carrying life on them. They randomly selected 50 stars (without replacement), tested them out and found no evidence of life on them. What is the probability of life existing in the universe (i.e. on the rest 950 ?)


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Pierre Charland
Member since Dec-22-05
Jun-10-07, 08:09 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Probability"
In response to message #0
 
   >Astronomers reckon that, say, N=1.000 stars in the visible
>universe are capable of carrying life on them. They randomly
>selected n=50 stars (without replacement), tested them out and
>found no evidence of life on them. What is P = the probability
>of life existing in the universe (i.e. on the rest 950 ?)

for 1000 stars, 50 tested:
Pi = prob(life on exactly i stars, given 0 on 50)
Pi = binomial(950,i) / 2^950
P = Sum(Pi; i=1..950)
P = Sum(binomial(950,i); i=1..950) / 2^950

for N stars, n tested:
Pi = prob(life on exactly i stars, given 0 on n)
Pi = binomial(N-n,i) / 2^(N-n)
P = Sum(Pi; i=1..(N-n))
P = Sum(binomial(N-n,i); i=1..(N-n)) / 2^(N-n)

Is that OK ? If so, now we need a formula for the sum.

AlphaChapMtl


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melefthe
Member since Feb-8-07
Jun-11-07, 01:23 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Probability"
In response to message #1
 
   Sorry, I do not think so at all. First of all this is a hypergeometric probability distribution since there is NO replacement. Have another go, and I will tell you my solution, for which of course I am not certain. Think of what I am asking, i.e. how I would be happy. remember, this is a blank question.

Marios, Athens


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