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CTK Exchange
jupiter
Member since Jan-3-06
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Jan-03-06, 12:00 PM (EST) |
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"probability"
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I am thinking of our UK bank credit-card PINs, which have 4 digits. Obviously many PINs are repeated. Say a bank has a million customers My question is: What is the chance that if the PINs are assigned randomly, all the possible 4-digit numbers 0000-9999 will be used at least once?To simplify the problem, let us consider, say, only n customers, with n<10000, and only 2-digit PINs 00-99. Is there a generalised answer to this kind of problem? CDA (from United Kingdom) CDA |
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alexb
Charter Member
1756 posts |
Jan-03-06, 08:48 PM (EST) |
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1. "RE: probability"
In response to message #0
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>To simplify the problem, let us consider, say, only n >customers, with n<10000, and only 2-digit PINs 00-99. It's not actually a simplification. >Is there a generalised answer to this kind of problem? There is a generalized question that can be asked: An experiment may result in one of k equiprobable events. What is a probability that an event will not show up in n trials? In your original problem k = 10000. To really simplify the problem, take k = 2. As a result of a trial you may have, say, either x or y. n trials produce a sequence of x's and y's. The question now is equivalent to asking how many of xy-strings of length n contain only 1 letter? |
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jupiter
guest
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Jan-04-06, 05:51 PM (EST) |
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2. "RE: probability"
In response to message #1
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On looking at a few notes I wrote many years ago, I find the problem is, as you say, an extended form of a much simpler problem. Example: There are 6 faces to a die. How many throws needed to get at least one showing of every number 1 to 6?And given, say, 50 throws, what is prob of getting all 6 faces at least once? Trouble is that it'seems to involve things called Stirling Numbers, after which I gave up. But didn't (James) Stirling have a formula for large factorials? The arithmetic would get far too complicated for my original question, I guess, without some good approximations available. Thanks for putting me on the right track. |
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Pierre Charland
Member since Dec-22-05
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Jan-17-06, 01:40 PM (EST) |
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3. "RE: probability"
In response to message #0
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Basically, this is the <Coupon Collector Problem>, If a complete set has K coupons, how many coupon to buy (on average) until a complete N-set is collected ? The answer is K*H(K) = K*(1/1+1/2+1/3+..+1/K) Note: H(K) = 1/1+1/2+1/3+..+1/K) is called the Kth Harmonic number. If 2-digit, then K=100, then H(K)=5.18737751763.., K*H(K)=518.737751763.. If 4-digit, then K=10000, then H(K)=9.78760603604.., K*H(K)=97876.0603604.. This does not exactly answer your question, but relates to it. My reference are: --Problems and Snapshots from the World of Probability, p.85 by Gunnar Blom -- Generatingfunctionology, 4.2 p.132 in 1st edition by Herbert S. Wilf AlphaChapMtl |
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jupiter
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Jan-29-06, 02:13 PM (EST) |
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4. "RE: probability"
In response to message #3
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Thanks ! Your formula passes OK. I played the game with K=100 by generating random numbers. After some 500 games, the average worked out very close to your figure of 518.73, so I took your formula as correct. With K=50 the average came to 224.38 after 500 such games. Have not tried it for K=10,000. It would consume too much machine time and resources. Thanks again. |
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