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Subject: "Interest in Joint Measure"     Previous Topic | Next Topic
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srh44612
Member since Apr-10-05
Apr-10-05, 07:11 AM (EST)
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"Interest in Joint Measure"
 
   Hi,

I am reviewing the college and university rankings guide publication (US News and World Report), which lists both a freshman retention rate and a graduation rate for an estimated 1400 institutions. It is obvious these rates are derived from different populations and over time, but I want to take both into account to calculate a joint measure if plausible.

My question is: Which type of probability, if any, do you believe describes these rates (taken as empirical probabilities): independent; marginal; conditional, or some other?

BTW the average retention rate is 0.75 and the average graduation rate (percent who graduate in six years or less) is 0.51. If looking at the marginal probability approach, would the marginal probability of graduation be 0.68 (0.51 / 0.75)? Other forms I ran across include summing the two rates or multiplying them depending on the issues of coexistence (not mutually exclusive) or independence.

Please inform. Your reply is appreciated as I am perplexed by this problem.

Thanks!


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MPC
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Apr-18-05, 09:00 AM (EST)
 
1. "RE: Interest in Joint Measure"
In response to message #0
 
   I don’t know if I got your question right. But from the data you set I read the following

a) 51 out a 100 students will graduate in six years or less

b) 49 out of a 100 students who will graduate later or never.

Since 25 out of 100 are drop-outs that means than from the set of 49, 25 will never graduate and the others 24 will finish after six year. In summary you have out of population of 100 the following sets:

Set A 51 students graduating before six years

Set B 24 students graduating after six years

Set C 25 students never graduating .


So you are right to conclude that if a student is retained has a chance 51/(51+24) to graduate within the six years of enrollment.


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