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CTK Exchange
Sumanth
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Nov-08-07, 11:48 AM (EST) |
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"Independent events in probability"
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Sample Space ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} Event A={1,3,5,7}, Event B = {7,8}, P(A)= 1/4,P(B)=1/2, A intersection B = {7,8},P(A intersection B) =1/8, which is equal to P(A)*P(B)Here events A and B are non independent but still P(A intersection B) = P(A)*P(B) Does the following holds true? If A and B are independent events P(A intersection B) = P(A)*P(B) but If P(A)*P(B) = P(A intersection B),the events can be either dependent or non independent I feel so because even areawise this hold true. Please let me know? Thanks Sumanth(Student doing my Masters) |
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alexb
Charter Member
2171 posts |
Nov-08-07, 12:38 PM (EST) |
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1. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #0
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>Sample Space ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} >Event A={1,3,5,7}, Event B = {7,8}, P(A)= 1/4,P(B)=1/2,No, it's the other way round P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/4. >A intersection B = {7,8}, A intersection B = {7}. > P(A intersection B) =1/8, which is > equal to P(A)*P(B) Yes, indeed. > >Here events A and B are non independent Why do you think the events are dependent? Because there intersection is not empty? Two events are independent if occurence of one does not affect the probability of occurence of the other. >If P(A)*P(B) = P(A intersection B),the events can be either >dependent or non independent This is correct, with a caveat. The interpretation of the second event may change along with its probability after the first event took place. In your case, the question to answer is this: assuming A has occured, what is the probability of B happening? |
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Sumanth
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Nov-09-07, 02:44 AM (EST) |
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2. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #1
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for this example P(B/A) becomes P(B) which is similar to independent events but again they are dependent events. Correct me if I am wrong? |
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alexb
Charter Member
2171 posts |
Nov-09-07, 03:09 AM (EST) |
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3. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #2
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>for this example P(B/A) becomes P(B) which is similar to >independent events but again they are dependent events.Strange as it may sound, since P(B|A) = P(B) the events are independent. >Correct me if I am wrong? But stranger things may happen. Consider A+ = {1, 2, 3, 5, 7} and A- = {3, 5, 7} and B as before. Then P(B|A-) = 1/3 > 1/4 = P(B), which is sensible I think, but still wonderful. The element "1" has nothing to do with B. Why should its inclusion or exclusion in A affect, even increase, the probability of B. Worse, P(B|A+) = 1/5 < 1/4 = P(B). And tell me what "2" has to do with B? The problem is that independence of two events is often confused with them having empty intersection. Your example shows that this is not correct. Furthermore, having an empty intersection does not imply independence. An event and its complementary are clearly dependent. Thus, just accept the definition of independence: P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A intersection B) = P(A)P(B). |
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mr_homm
Member since May-22-05
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Nov-11-07, 11:17 PM (EST) |
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7. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #6
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As far as I know, the only thing special about the union of independent events is that it allows the generalization of Boolean algebra to these events. Since P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A)·P(B) = 1 - (1-P(A))·(1-P(B)), a form of DeMorgan's law is true. Writing negation of A as A', and then abusing notation somewhat by identifying a set with its probability, and further abusing notation by writing A+B for AUB, you obtain (formally) A+B = (A'·B')', so that (A+B)' = A'·B'. In other words, P(A&B)=P(A)·P(B) shows that P can be thought of as a map from sets to numbers which sends & to ·, from which follows DeMorgan's law, which in turn allows you to regard P as sending U to +. The rest of the usual rules of Boolean algebra follow. These are the same notational assumptions used in Boolean algebra, where the name of a sentence is used as a variable standing for its truth value, 0 or 1. The notation has merely been extended to use the name of a set (which could have been defined by a sentence anyway) to stand for its probability, 0 <= p <= 1. In fact, it is an assumption of Boolian algebra that the truth values of the variables are independent, but in the context of logic, this assumption is vacuously true, and so passes unnoticed. The assumption of independence becomes visible when you pass from logic to probability. This perhaps does not answer the original question, but I hope it is at least somewhat useful to mention an interesting feature of independent sets. --Stuart Anderson |
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Sumanth
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Feb-01-08, 10:32 AM (EST) |
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8. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #7
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for A+ p(A+) = 5/8 p(B) = 1/4 A intersection B is {7} p(A intersection B) = 1/8 which is not equal to p(A+).p(B) = 5/32 by which it'says A+ and B are not independent will that not same hold good for A and B( that is non independence condition)??for A- p(A-) = 3/8 p(B) = 1/4 A intersection B is {7} p(A intersection B) = 1/8 which is not equal to p(A-).p(B) = 3/32 by which it says A- and B are not independent will that not same hold good for A and B( that is non independence condition)?? |
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alexb
Charter Member
2171 posts |
Feb-01-08, 10:40 AM (EST) |
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9. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #8
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>by which it'says A+ and B are not independent >will that not same hold good for A and B( >that is non independence condition)??I do not quite understand your question. Just do with A what you did with A+: P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/4, P(A∩B) = 1/8 = P(A)·P(B) meaning A and B are independent. |
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Sumanth
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Feb-01-08, 09:26 PM (EST) |
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10. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #9
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The reason why I asked this was: Two events are said to be independent only when change of one event does not bother the other. Now as A changed to A+ or A-, P(A∩B) = P(A)·P(B) does not holds good. But it'satisfies for A and B, so how can A and B be independent when A+ and B are not independent and also A- and B are not independent?For the example below with prior knowledge of events being independent: event P ={H,T}-coin event Q = {1,2,3,4,5,6}-dice P(p∩q) = P(p)·P(q)= 1/12 Now if Q changes = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} P(p∩q) = P(p)·P(q)= 1/16 We can do this because we know they are independent. One more example Sample Space ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} Event A={1,3,5,7}, Event B = {5,6,7,8}, P(A)= 1/2,P(B)=1/2, A intersection B = {5,7},P(A intersection B) =1/4, which is acciddently equal to P(A)*P(B) My question is For independent events, P(A∩B) = P(A)·P(B) but when P(A)·P(B)= P(A∩B) they can independent or non independent. Please help me to get rid of this question. |
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alexb
Charter Member
2171 posts |
Feb-01-08, 09:39 PM (EST) |
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12. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #10
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>The reason why I asked this was: >Two events are said to be independent only when change of >one event does not bother the other. No. A change has nothing to do with the definition: occurence of one does not affect the probability of the other.>Now as A changed to A+ >or A-, P(A¡ÉB) = P(A)¡¤P(B) does not holds good. But it >satisfies for A and B, so how can A and B be independent >when A+ and B are not independent and also A- and B are not >independent? However implausible this may look, this is simply true by definition. The definition in this case is not fostered by the pedestrian intuition. >For the example below with prior knowledge of events being >independent: >event P ={H,T}-coin >event Q = {1,2,3,4,5,6}-dice >P(p∩q) = P(p)·P(q)= 1/12 >Now if Q changes = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} >P(p∩q) = P(p)·P(q)= 1/16 >We can do this because we know they are independent. I would distinguish here "independent events" that come from the same sample space and "independent experiments" that are accommpanied by possibly different sample spaces. The nature of the change in the second component of your example is unrelated to the change of the former sort (A vs A+). > >One more example >Sample Space ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} >Event A={1,3,5,7}, Event B = {5,6,7,8}, P(A)= 1/2,P(B)=1/2, >A intersection B = {5,7},P(A intersection B) =1/4, which is >acciddently equal to P(A)·P(B) Accidently? Is not everything? >My question is >For independent events, P(A∩B) = P(A)·P(B) >but when P(A)·P(B)= P(A∩B) they can independent or non >independent. No, the events A and B are independent iff P(A∩B) = P(A)·P(B). "Only when" means exactly "iff". >Please help me to get rid of this question |
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Sumanth
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Feb-02-08, 08:27 AM (EST) |
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13. "RE: Independent events in probability"
In response to message #12
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The sentence "I would distinguish here "independent events" that come from the same sample space and "independent experiments" that are accommpanied by possibly different sample spaces. " made me understand the independence condition. Thanks!!! |
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