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dale
guest

Aug1706, 07:29 PM (EST) 

"Childbirth probability"

What is the probability of a woman giving birth to 3 children and all of them born on the same day, but different years. So nontwins, non induced labor or planned csection. 

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mr_homm
Member since May2205

Aug1706, 06:44 AM (EST) 

1. "RE: Childbirth probability"
In response to message #0

Well the birth of the first child involves no coincidence whatsoever  whenever you're born, that's your birthday. The second child (assuming the birthday is determined randomly) has a 1/365 chance of having the same birthday as the first child, and the third has again a 1/365 chance of having that day as its birthday as well. Since the probabilities are independent, the chance of all three children sharing a birthday is 1/(365*365). Hope this helps! Stuart Anderson 

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Silas
guest

Oct0606, 07:45 AM (EST) 

5. "RE: Childbirth probability"
In response to message #4

Not really  the dates are the same every year, and every year has 365 or 366 days in it. Even if it's two years later, three years later or ten years later, the birth of the third child only has a choice of 365 different dates to be born on (barring leap years). Therefore the chance of all three children being born on the same day is 1/365.25 * 1/365.25 (To average over a whole population.) Say there are 10,000,000 sets of 3 siblings in the United States, then there are 75 where all three siblings have the same birthday. 

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alexb
Charter Member
2013 posts 
Oct1106, 10:27 AM (EST) 

7. "RE: Childbirth probability"
In response to message #6

I think there is an ambiguity in the question: "What is the probability of a woman giving birth ..." One possibility is to interpret "a woman" as a generic reference to a child bearing representative of the human species. Another possibility is to see in "a woman" an arbitrary but a fixed such representative. Your reasoning applies within the first interpretation; mine with the second. You simply can't apply statistics to a specific person. 

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manohar kaul
guest

Oct2206, 08:43 AM (EST) 

9. "RE: Childbirth probability"
In response to message #4

This is possible depending upon the fertility of a woman also if she follows Chinese calender for conception which is having around 90 percent accuracy.Also she will have to go for c section to have birth on the same date but different year. 

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Chrissy
guest

May2407, 08:15 AM (EST) 

10. "RE: Childbirth probability"
In response to message #0

I don't know about having '3' children on the same day but I have '2' children born on the same day 6 years apart. First child arrived 10 days after his due date. Second pregnancy the due date was my first childs birthday (which I was told would be unlikely as children hardly ever arrive on their due date)  but low and behold he made his entrance on that day! Both born under the sign of 'Gemini' which is a sign of twins  both my boys are of a similar nature (I consider myself to have twins  just with a 6 year delay!)


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