This is my first post, and I wish to ask a question please.

I was reading "The Log" and there is an advert in it about 'Loss of Licence Insurance' for pilots in the UK.

The advert says, "On average, around 40 pilots lose their licence every year in the UK (Source: CAA). This means you have approximately a 450:1 chance of permanently losing your licence in the next 12 months".

Basically I do NOT believe the 450:1 stat.

What I would like to know is the true "probability" of this medical licence loss event happening; given there are about 7500 pilots in the UK of which I would guess there's about 60% over 40 years of age and who are required to be medically examined every 6 months. The under 40's are examined annualy.

I would like your best guestimate of the probability of a pilot losing his/her licence in the next 12 months.

Part Two: Could you supply an answer if one assumes ALL are examined annualy.
Part Three: As above, but examined every 6 months.

Thank you in advance.

TG

You can lose your licence, obviously, in many ways: e.g. heart attack, stroke, vision & hearing problems, excessive drinking, lung cancer, even stressful living. Do you mean losing it purely by means of failing the medical, or through other means as well?

If there is a 1/n chance of failing any given medical, then if there are two medicals per year the chance of passing both of them is
(n-1)^2/n^2. The probability of failing one of them is 1 minus this value. But this method is fraught with problems, as a pilot may change his lifestyle during a 6-month period, thus affecting his next medical; or he may have marital problems, stressful family life, etc, etc. The value of n could change quite a bit over 12 or even 6 months.

I cannot see a way to give an answer that is anything like accurate.
The 450:1 figure does not follow from the 40 figure at all.