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CTK Exchange
Owen
Member since Nov-11-05
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Nov-17-05, 07:20 AM (EST) |
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"Fun probability question"
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Here is a fun problem for those of you haven't seen it. I believe it may be found in the Dover book entitled something along the lines of "50 Probability Problems" (a great little book). You, Annie, and Bob will be participating in a truel (a duel with 3 people). The three of you will take turns firing one shot from your gun; once a person is hit he/she is out of the competition. You have the advantage of going first, but you only hit your intended target 30% of the time. Annie goes next, and she never misses. Bob shoots third, and he hits his intended target 50% of the time. What should your strategy be as the first shooter? (Assume a rotation of You, Annie, Bob, You, Annie, Bob, etc. until one person is hit, afterwhich the two remaining competitors take turns shooting.) |
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mpdlc
guest
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Nov-17-05, 12:09 PM (EST) |
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1. "RE: Fun probability question"
In response to message #0
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Hi Owen, Sometime ago I bought that book you have referred, someone borrowed from me and I lost it as happen frequently with lended books. I believe its author is someone call Frederick Hosteller or alike, and I do remember more or less the solution of this particular problem, so it will be unfair from me to write about it, and spoil the fun of others. It is a really entertaining book, even for me who do not like too much the field of probability. In that book I remember a problem referred to a drowry which almost obsessed me, I did spend hours and hours mulling over it, in my commuting driving, awaiting my flight in airports,or just awake in my insomnia,it was really challenging experience, so if you consider appropiate post it, I believe you should get a lot of attention. |
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alexb
Charter Member
1691 posts |
Nov-19-05, 00:02 AM (EST) |
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4. "RE: Fun probability question"
In response to message #2
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Just to put things in perspective, Buffon's problem came from a different place. Which is not to say that F. Mosteller's book does not deserve a reference. I have its Russian translation from 1985. Now, the dowry problem. Translating back, it may look like this: In search for a royal advisor, the king offers candidates a hand of a lady in attendance with the highest dowry. There are 100 young ladies, all with different dowries. The amounts of dowries are written on tickets and thoroughly mixed. A candidate draws a ticket and gets to decide whether the amount he read is the highest. In case he makes the right decision, he gets a wife and the dowry. In case he makes a wrong decision, he leaves empty handed. However, he is not obligate to make a decision at all, but is allowed to draw another ticket instead. Now again, he can either make a decision and face the consequences as before, or draw a third ticket, and so on. What is the best strategy? |
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mr_homm
Member since May-22-05
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Nov-22-05, 09:58 AM (EST) |
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5. "RE: Fun probability question"
In response to message #4
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Just to clarify the rules, is it correct to assume that the tickets are not returned after they are drawn? Also, should I assume that the candidate cannot later declare that an earlier ticket was the highest, i.e. he has to make a yes or no decision about the current ticket only? Without these assumptions the puzzle seems too easy. If the tickets are returned, he can simply keep drawing them for months if necessary until he is certain he has seen them all, and then wait for the highest one to come up again -- an easy solution. If the tickets are not returned and he can choose an earlier ticket, he can simply take tickets until he has seen them all, and then choose the highest -- an even easier solution. I haven't started thinking about the actual puzzle yet with these assumptions included. --Stuart Anderson |
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alexb
Charter Member
1691 posts |
Nov-18-05, 03:10 PM (EST) |
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3. "RE: Fun probability question"
In response to message #0
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>Here is a fun problem for those of you haven't seen it. I >believe it may be found in the Dover book entitled something >along the lines of "50 Probability Problems" (a great little >book). > >You, Annie, and Bob will be participating in a truel (a duel >with 3 people). The three of you will take turns firing one >shot from your gun; once a person is hit he/she is out of >the competition. You have the advantage of going first, but >you only hit your intended target 30% of the time. Annie >goes next, and she never misses. Bob shoots third, and he >hits his intended target 50% of the time. What should your >strategy be as the first shooter? (Assume a rotation of >You, Annie, Bob, You, Annie, Bob, etc. until one person is >hit, afterwhich the two remaining competitors take turns >shooting.) See https://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_1_26_98.html for a discussion and a couple of additional references. |
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