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CTK Exchange
MikeS

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Jul-05-10, 12:19 PM (EST) |
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"Probability"
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A radio station asks for a caller of a specific year to call. Then the station then spins a "month" wheel for the caller to win a prize if their birth month matches the month spun up (the station does not know the birth month of the caller). Then the station spins a second "date" wheel (1 - 31) and if the caller's birth date matches the wheel (again the station does not know the birth date of the caller) they win the major prize. Assuming that the wheels have equal sections for each possibility, what are the odds of the month matching, and then the caller winning the major prize??I thin I need to apply independent rules for both wheels since the station only specifies the year, and there's 1/12 options for the caller's month and 1/12 options for the wheel... etc. |
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MikeS

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Jul-05-10, 00:00 AM (EST) |
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2. "RE: Probability"
In response to message #1
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Thanks alexb. Since the radio station does not specify a month for the caller's birth date I was approaching the problem with the view of independent events for the caller and the wheel spin, e.g. spinning 2 wheels with 12 months each on them for the same result on each wheel. There are 12 possibilities for the random caller's birth month, and there are 12 possibilities for the wheel to land on... 1/12 x 1/12 = 1/144 for matching months. Is this wrong? If not, then the same principle would seem to apply to the date wheel as well... Looking forward to your replies :) |
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Kenneth Ramsey

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Jul-11-10, 07:43 PM (EST) |
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7. "RE: Probability"
In response to message #5
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I read this reply over again and I still say that the probability of a match is 1/12 * 1/31 The caller's Birth date is not variable. Also, for the month there are 12 possible matches 1<>1,2<>2,...12<>12; so 12/144 = 1/12. Same way for the day of the month there are 31 possible matches. Since the caller's birth date can be considered fixed, the only issue is whether the spin of the wheels will match the birth date. As there are only 372 possible wheel combinations and one and only one matches the caller's birthdate then the answer should be 1/372. |
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Kenneth Ramsey

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Jul-09-10, 06:58 AM (EST) |
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6. "RE: Probability"
In response to message #1
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I am not sure but isn't it true that since only callers with their birthday in the year selected by the radio station would call, equate that probability to 1. Since the number of days on the day wheel is 31 and the number of months on the month wheel is 12, the probability that a caller would have his or her birth date match the radio selection would be 1* 1/12 * 1/31 regardless of the caller's birth month. |
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