A population starts with a single amoeba. For this one and for the generations thereafter, there is a probability of 3/4 that an individual amoeba will split to create two amoebas, and a 1/4 probability that it will die out without producing offspring. What is the probability that the family tree of the original amoeba will go on for ever?
because both sides of the equation represent the probability of the long term survival to the original amoeba.
Simipification yields
pP2 + (1 - 2p)P = 0,
or
P·(pP + (1 - 2p)) = 0,
and since P ≠ 0,
pP + (1 - 2p) = 0,
or
P = (2p - 1)/p.
We see that if a generic amoeba divides with the probability not exceeding 1/2, it stands no chance to survive for ever. However, for the specific case where p = 3/4, the probability of survival P = 2/3.