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Amoeba's Survival

A population starts with a single amoeba. For this one and for the generations thereafter, there is a probability of 3/4 that an individual amoeba will split to create two amoebas, and a 1/4 probability that it will die out without producing offspring. What is the probability that the family tree of the original amoeba will go on for ever?

Answer

Solution

Copyright © 1996-2009 Alexander Bogomolny

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/3. You can check the solution.

Copyright © 1996-2009 Alexander Bogomolny

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good and general notations help solve the problem. Let p be the probability of a successful split for a single amoeba, and P the probability in question, the probability that an amoeba's family tree is infinite.

With the probability p we have a second generation of two amoebas. The probability that at least one of them will have an infinite family tree is 1 - (1 - P)2, because (1 - P)2 is the probability that both of them will perish undivided. Therefore,

  P = p(1 - (1 - P)2)

because both sides of the equation represent the probability of the long term survival to the original amoeba.

Simipification yields

  pP2 + (1 - 2p)P = 0,

or

  P·(pP + (1 - 2p)) = 0,

and since P ≠ 0,

  pP + (1 - 2p) = 0,

or

  P = (2p - 1)/p.

We see that if a generic amoeba divides with the probability not exceeding 1/2, it stands no chance to survive for ever. However, for the specific case where p = 3/4, the probability of survival P = 2/3.

References

  1. R. Blum et al., Mathemagic,Main Street, 2002

Copyright © 1996-2009 Alexander Bogomolny

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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