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CTK Exchange
krkaplan
guest
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Jan-25-06, 05:32 PM (EST) |
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"Monty Hall Problem"
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I just discovered this wonderful site and meandered over to the Monty Hall problem. I'm sure others have lent this insight, but I've always found it easier to consider the chance of losing when (1) you don't switch, and (2) you do. You'll lose 2/3 of the time if you don't switch. If you do switch, then the prize is still available 2/3 of the time, and you'll make the wrong choice 1/2 the time, so the chance of losing when you switch is only (2/3)*(1/2) = 1/3. You've halved your chance of losing = doubled your chances of winning by switching.
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