Hello

Can anyone suggest the best way to calculate the probability of losing two close relatives (Father/Maternal Grandmother)in separate (natural) events and different geographic locations on the same day? I have one brother who presumably shares the same probability.

I wouldn't care to figure this out mathematically as there are too many variables and there is no need of it. Since your family is small I say there is probably less than one chance in a hundred trillion, but you would be better off to be prepared for the event anyway. It make sense to cherish your love ones while they are living.

>Hello
>
>Can anyone suggest the best way to calculate the probability
>of losing two close relatives (Father/Maternal
>Grandmother)in separate (natural) events and different
>geographic locations on the same day? I have one brother who
>presumably shares the same probability.

Sure. First by natural, I'll assume you mean natural causes. If you mean earthquakes, floods and the like, and they don't both live in a hurricane or brushfire prone area, that would result in a significantly lower chance than I'll give here.

You didn't mention ages, but I'll assume the father is 45-64 and the grandmother is 65 or older. I'll only include the top ten causes of death because that's all that http://www.disastercenter.com/cdc/ lists.

Now, the grandmother has to die sometime, the only question is what is the chance that the father dies the same day. Data for 65 and up deaths indicate about a 98% chance that death is by natural causes and is not an accident.

The chance the father dies that day will be about (1/365)(663.2/100000) or about .0018%. So (.0018%)(98%) is about the chance that this unfortunate event occurs, about 18 in a million. Given a country with 300 million people, it's going to happen to about 5400 of them on average.

Many thanks for your replies and taking the time to help me figure this out, I didn't realise the other information needed for this calculation. I have added the following:

UK based (population 60 million max)

Father died at 72 (heart disease)
Maternal Grandmother died at 85 (heart failure)

200 miles apart

Deaths within 12 hours of each other on same day in November

Only 2 surviving primary relatives - I thought having a brother sharing the probability meant that the probability is halved?

This happened to me. I have always believed I had more chance of winning the lottery (here in the UK that's a in 14 chance), but couldn't find a clear way of calculating the probability.

Thanks once again

CL