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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Guest book
Topic ID: 421
Message ID: 2
#2, RE: Error
Posted by Andy Haugh on Apr-06-05 at 07:22 PM
In response to message #1
If I may step in. You have said that if the wording were changed to "assume one is male" that it would then be correctly calculated as 1/3.

Ummmmmm...no?

Forget all the mumbo jumbo for a second. It is clearly 1/2. You know the gender of one of the bears. There is one other bear to determine. Assuming that gender is a 50/50 prop, then it is 1/2 odds that the "other" bear is male.

Look at it this way also. It has been said that if "the white bear is male" then it is certainly a 1/2 chance that both are male. Similarly, if "the black bear is male" then it is a 1/2 chance that both are male.

So no matter which colour the male turns out to be, the odds of the other being male is 1/2, but magically if you don't know the colour the odds are suddenly 1/3? I don't think so. I know you math types get all uppity on this question, but I'm afraid you're terribly mistaken.

Thanks for your time. Feel free to email me for further discussion..

canadianinwi@yahoo.com