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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Middle school
Topic ID: 64
Message ID: 48
#48, RE: Monty Hall Problem
Posted by Seesall on Oct-27-04 at 12:48 PM
In response to message #47
>Seesall writes:
>>In fact if the contestant chooses door A and Monty never opens C when the car is behind A the chances on B are 100%
>
>That is correct but one third of the time, i.e. when the car
>is behind door A, Monty also opens door C (i.e., one of the
>wrong doors). Thus Keith Devlin's column is correct.
>Have a Good Day
>KJ Ramsey

Read what I said again. I said that Monty (chooses) never
to open Door C when the car is behind A

"Monty never opens C when the car is behind A"

you then said:

"but one third of the time , when the car is behind A
Monty also opens door C"

Wrong, I JUST said Monty chooses NEVER to open door
C when the car is behind A. He opens door B instead!

Delvins column is wrong. In fact not enough information
was provided to determine the odds on door B which could
vary between 50%-100%. All that can be said with certainty
is that if the contestant always switches to both door B
and Door C the overall odds are 2/3. That is a hellavu lot
different than saying the odds on door B are 2/3