>Thanks for your imput. Still the best explanation that I
>read was Kevin Devins column, the link to which Alex posted
>earlier.

The name's Keith Devlin

>7 chance of winning. See Kevin Devin's column at
>http://www.maa.org/devin/devin_07_03.html

The correct reference is

http://www.maa.org/devlin/devlin_07_03.html