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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Middle school
Topic ID: 64
Message ID: 4
#4, RE: Monty Hall Problem
Posted by Psychlogic on May-01-02 at 03:54 PM
In response to message #3
The six initial possibilities are:

Car Goat1 Goat2
Car Goat2 Goat1

Goat1 Car Goat2
Goat2 Car Goat1

Goat1 Goat2 Car
Goat2 Goat1 Car

(Same reasoning as why chances of getting a head and a tail with a toss of 2 coins is 50% and not 33.3%--HH HT TH TT)

The above 6 starting positons clearly show that staying with the first choice (Column 1)loses 2/6 times and win 4/6 times.