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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Middle school
Topic ID: 64
Message ID: 36
#36, RE: Monty Hall Problem
Posted by Seesall on Sep-15-04 at 10:07 PM
In response to message #2

Tattletale is correct and the only when with a coherent anaylsis
in this entire thread.

Assume door 1 is chosen
Another way to look at it is, there are really two games being
played. One when the car is beyond is behind door 1 and one when
the car is behind door 2 or door 3

The winning percentage for each door for the second game is
100% 1/3 of the time. The winning percentage for each door
for the first game is 0% 1/6 of the time (if Monty treats
each door the same).

The total winning percentage for either door is then
100% *1/3 + 0% 1/6
-------------------- = 1/3 / 3/6 = 6/9 = 2/3
1/3 + 1/6


1/3 + 1/6