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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Middle school
Topic ID: 64
Message ID: 28
#28, RE: Monty Hall Problem
Posted by MJ on Aug-05-03 at 00:33 AM
In response to message #0
I finally "got it," that is, I can now explain why you should switch every time.

I think of the three doors as "two groups of doors."

One "group" is the ONE door I choose, the other "group of doors"--the other two doors.

IT IS OBVIOUS THAT: IF the prize is placed randomly, the prize will only be in my "group" one time out of three, or 33.3% of the time.

TWO-THIRDS OF THE TIME, THE PRIZE WILL BE LOCATED IN "THE OTHER GROUP."

When I finally saw the problem this way, "I got it."

I should always jump to the group which has the prize 2/3 of the time.