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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Middle school
Topic ID: 64
Message ID: 20
#20, RE: here's some logic
Posted by jman_red on Aug-22-02 at 06:14 PM
In response to message #19
Your opinion, while right for the scenario you propose, is wrong for the monty Hall dilemma.

Look at how the problem is worded.
Step 1: Choose a door.
Step 2: The host will open a door, revealing it to be a goat, not the prize
Step 3: You may either switch to the last remaining door or stay at your own.

If you initailly choose wrong, which is 2/3 probability, then the host will eliminate the other door that is incorrect and you will switch to the correct door. That is true both statistically and in real life. Try it yourself.

It seems to me, however, that you simply missed step 2.

jman_red