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Forum URL: http://www.cut-the-knot.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/forumctk.cgi
Forum Name: Middle school
Topic ID: 64
Message ID: 19
#19, here's some logic
Posted by jeremy on Aug-21-02 at 07:47 PM
In response to message #0
It shouldn't make a difference as to how you do it. Statistically it may, but real-life, it won't. There are 3 choices. Good, bad, and bad. (G,B,B) Now, you choose one. You don't know whether it is a G or a B. You decide to choose again. Since you didn't eliminate a choice earlier, then you still don't know what you had, or what you will have. It does not matter how many guesses you take. The last guess is all that matters, and you have a 1/3 chancec of winning. If you chose 1 door, and then decide to take a different one without seeing what was in it, Your first guess did you the same amount of good as me sitting at home watching the TV yelling at you what to choose. Only that one guess matters. I can say "door A, wait no, door B!" and the fact that I said door A before choosing door B will not affect what's behind it. There's my opinion. Jeremy