Your website is TERRIFIC.

I have just opened it and one of the first things I saw was the Monty Hall puzzle with two responses from hits.

The easiest explanation I can think of for the solution is:

If the correct solution is not to switch doors then you are assuming that, in the long run, you have picked the correct door most (or at least half) of the time the first time round. As we know that this is probably not so (1/3 is the expected frequency of correct first time picks), then the solution must be to shift doors.

Thank you again for the website and I hope that you are not annoyed by yet another smarty pants email on an old problem.

Bruno Barros

Copyright © 1996-2010 Alexander Bogomolny